Copa Del Rey Final Opposition Preview : Athletic Club

Barcelona's last chance at salvaging something from this season

17th of April, Barcelona face Athletic Club from Bilbao for the 4th time this season in the finals of this year’s Copa del Rey. To quote Ray Hudson, Barcelona “ must be really really tired of these Basque boys by now”. They have already lost the Supercopa de Espana finals to Athletic Club, and the two La Liga victories have been cagey, hard-fought affairs. Facing their familiar and oft-faced nemesis yet again in the finals of what could be Barcelona’s only trophy this season, Ronald Koeman will hopefully come out triumphant.

Typical Structure

An already battle-hardened Athletic Club were boosted by a mid-season managerial change, and the mercurial Marcelino García Toral, previously of Valencia fame, took over the reigns and immediately led the team to a Spanish cup victory. Athletic Club play a very stable system - always a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2. Two wide mids in Iker Muniain and Álex Berenguer/Óscar de Marcos (who also plays as a fullback sometimes) try to connect with the frontmen Iñaki Williams and Raúl García. García will often drop slightly deeper to receive the balls and act as a foil to Williams’ runs behind the defence.

Form and Momentum

Now, it has to be mentioned that Athletic Club are coming off a curious run of form. Their last 5 games in the La Liga have seen them lose to Atlético Madrid, and tie the next 4 against Celta Vigo, Eibar, Real Sociedad and Alaves. Against the bigger names, their underlying numbers (possession value/threat creation and expected goals) don’t flatter either. Not to mention, they have already lost the finals of the previous year’s CdR to Real Sociedad (pandemic caused the finals to be delayed until this April). If anything, momentum plays a tremendously crucial part in football, and momentum right now is not on Athletic Club’s side.

But then again, it’s not in Barcelona’s side either. They were doing great before the international break derailed all momentum. Barcelona were super lucky to scrape three points following a lackadaisical display against Real Valladolid, and lost deservedly to Real Madrid, which saw them slip down to third in a pretty close and interesting title race.

Shots and goals

Athletic Club’s shot map below looks glorious, doesn’t it ? So many close-range high-quality shots from inside the six-yard box is a rarity.

In fact, taking into account only the open play shots, they have the second lowest median shot distance from opposition goal, as shown below.

Athletic Club’s open play shot locations and median distance. Idea and design: Jon Ollington (@jonollington)

A bit more of a deep-dive into the graph reveals something about their style of play. Athletic Club like to cross - a lot. Here is an infographic on their play style (modelled similarly to Opta’s own playstyle radars, and using Tom Worville’s (@Worville) radar style).

A lot of their shots and goals come from headers from close range following these crosses. Removing headers show a completely different shot generation heatmap for Athletic Club; long-distance pot shots now start affecting the picture :

Athletic Club open play shots - headers removed. Idea and design: Jon Ollington (@jonollington)

One more thing to be mentioned here is the temporal profile of shot-creation. As shown below, just like Real Madrid, Athletic Club shoot and score the most in the dying minutes of the game. Presumably because they are tying or losing the game at that point. Regardless, they are dangerous in the dying minutes.

This is evident in their recent lost to Atlético Madrid, where they created their highest amount of threat towards the end.

Now, Barcelona are well aware of this. In the Supercopa de Espana, they fell victim to a late equalizer and then an extra-time goal by Athletic Club. Even in the 3-2 La Liga victory, Athletic Club scored their second of the night towards the fag end of the game. It goes without saying, and as has been rightly mentioned by Ronal Araujo this week, Barcelona HAS TO CONCENTRATE for the entirety of the game. There is no scope of any lapse in a match as important as this.

The dangermen….

Let’s start by looking at the threat-creation zones of Athletic Club. Or, as I would like to say, Iker Muniain appreciation graphs.

By far, the greatest threats come from the flanks. Both flanks. But Iker Muniain is special. Perhaps the only player I personally like in that entire team. Working in tandem with Yuri Berchiche, he creates the most for Athletic. Underlap and release Yuir down the flank to cross ? Check. Send looping balls over the top of the defence to meet Garcia or Williams’ runs ? Check. Fake shots and dribble past full back or the center backs ? Check. When Muniain is subdued, Athletic are less threatening.

When it comes to goal threats, the two wide players Muniain and Berenguer lead the non-penalty goals table with 5 and 7 respectively. Williams has 4 non-penalty goals and Garcia has 2, and the oft-subbed on frontman Asier Villalibre has 4 goals. Williams, Muniain, Berchiche and Berenguer provide the most assists in the team. So they have a wide range (pun intended, did you get it ?) of threats that Barcelona will have to deal with.

Playstyle

Some bits of play style have already been hinted at before. Let’s look at some more details, starting with goal kicks and goalkeeper distributions. Athletic Club primarily tend to go long with their goal kicks and open play distributions.

And they are extremely successful at it too. This works because Raúl García is dominant in the air. He is really good at winning headers and hold-up play - either flicking it on for Williams to run, or cushioning it down before releasing some one down the flank to cross.

The playstyle radar as well the xT hotspots shown above already make it clear that they create danger from wide areas predominantly. Here is a sneak peek at their progressive passing clusters - there is very little in terms of central buildup. They go down the flanks and cross it in - simple and efficient.

In terms of pressing, they are extremely active pressers. Their pressing intensity was what chiefly caused issues for Barcelona in the past. In the recent loss to Real Sociedad, something that stood out was how they let the opposition center backs keep the ball, but as soon as the full back received it, they ferociously closed down to create a 3-4 men trap. They especially targetted Monreal in the first half, forcing several inaccurate passes from him. In the games against Barcelona, this was again typically the story. They would force Araujo and Lenglet wide and force them to go long, or actively press the full backs when the center backs played them short.

Once their high press is nullified, they fall back to 4-4-1-1/4-5-1 defensive shell and actively defend the center. And their center backs are pretty adept at winning aerial duels and clearing the ball away.

Conclusion

This brings us to the end of the article. Lots of issues to ponder about for Ronald Koeman - stopping Muniain/Berchiche’s crosses, dealing with the speed of Williams and the aerial threat of the entire team in general, while creating superiorities in attack. A 3 man midfield in a 4-3-3, or a libero+2 man midfield in 3-4-2-1/3-4-1-2 could do the needful in dominating the center of the park. The winger on the right side (presumably Dembele) will have to help Dest/Mingueza/Roberto (whoever the fullback/wingback will be) defensively against Berchiche+Muniain+Williams while creating enough threat offensively. Griezmann (if starting)+Alba will need to pin the right side of Athletic Club to allow Messi some space to create magic.

Let’s win one trophy, yeah ?!!